or tap any state
Map values as a table
Typical year
An average day through the year
Month by month as a table
Selected
See how much warmer, wetter or drier every state and county has gotten since 1945, and where two possible futures lead by 2095. Up to 2025 you're looking at what was actually measured. After that, it's climate model projections. Pick a place, drag the year, or press play.
Everything up to 2025 is NOAA's monthly record for each state and county. NOAA builds it from thousands of weather stations and fills the gaps between them on a fine grid. Its record goes back to 1895, but we start in 1945 because the early county numbers lean on very few stations.
From 2026 on, the numbers come from the same climate models behind NOAA's Climate Explorer. "Lower emissions" assumes the world cuts pollution moderately, which warms the planet about 2.4°C (4.3°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. "Higher emissions" assumes it keeps rising, for about 4.3°C (7.7°F). The world is already about 1.3°C warmer. So when you see a projection of 1.5, 2 or 3 degrees, the lower path passes 2°C around 2060, and the higher path passes 3°C in the 2060s. Models don't match today's weather perfectly, so we take the change each model predicts and add it to what was actually measured. The projection starts where the record ends and settles onto the model trend by 2040.
Every color and number is a comparison. Against 1945 to 1974, you see the change since the start of this record. That period includes the 1950s drought, so the Plains and Southwest look wetter by comparison. Against 1991 to 2020, NOAA's current official normal, today sits near zero and you mostly see what's still to come. Custom lets you pick any span of at least 10 years, like 1961 to 1990, the older official normal. For a custom span, the typical year's dashed normal is built from 10-year blocks, so it can be off by a fraction of a degree.
An average of many models is a smooth line, but real weather isn't. So each future year borrows the ups and downs of a real past year, and each future decade borrows those of a real past decade. That makes the projections look like actual weather. It isn't a forecast of any particular year.
The dots in the typical year chart are one realistic, made-up year of daily highs and lows. They're built from how much that place's days actually swung around the average from 2011 to 2020. The day counts are how many 90° days, 100° days and freezing nights you'd expect in a typical year. Because these are county-wide averages, they run a little cooler than a city airport thermometer.
NOAA NCEI Climate Divisional Database (October 2026 release) · LOCA projections via RCC-ACIS, as used in NOAA's Climate Explorer · Daily data from PRISM